Oil Above $100: The Hormuz Crisis and the East-West Pipeline Redraw the Energy Map

An illuminated oil platform at night illustrating oil markets

Image: Illustrative photo — Unsplash.

The oil market is living a week followers consider a full chapter: Brent recorded about $105.48 per barrel at the opening of trading on September 17, 2026, according to Forbes, before settling near $103.70 on September 18 according to Trading Economics tracking, at its highest levels in years, after the outage of the Saudi East-West pipeline and the navigation attacks in Hormuz, while the International Energy Agency cut global supply in its monthly report by 5.7 million barrels per day. A chain of interconnected shocks has made energy the world's most important economic file.

What happened in ten days? Why does one disabled pipe in Saudi Arabia shake markets from Tokyo to London? And what does it mean for fuel bills and inflation here? Chronicle's fully sourced report on the energy wave.

Table of Contents

  1. Where Oil Stands Now: The Numbers
  2. The Shock Sequence: An August and September Timeline
  3. The East-West Pipeline: Why One Pipe Matters This Much
  4. What Does the International Energy Agency Say?
  5. Aramco at the Storm's Center: Rising Profits, Stranded Cargoes
  6. The Impact on Consumers and Global Inflation
  7. Scenarios for the Weeks Ahead
  8. Key Points
  9. FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions
  10. Sources
  11. Read Also

Where Oil Stands Now: The Numbers

Indicator Value Source
Brent at the close on September 18 $103.70 (-1.07%) Trading Economics
Change over the month +13.18% Trading Economics
Change over the year +55.52% Trading Economics
Brent open on September 17 $105.48 Forbes
WTI open on September 17 $101.99 Forbes
September 17 morning price $103.98 (-4.36) Yahoo Finance

These numbers condense a story of months: Brent is up more than 55 percent in a year and 13 percent in the last month — the markets have not digested the new state of risk. More important, Brent now hovers above the hundred-dollar barrier the market has not known steadily for years, changing the behavior of governments, central banks and consumers at once.

The Shock Sequence: An August and September Timeline

Late August saw prices rise more than 2 percent after renewed exchanges of strikes between the United States and Iran, according to OilPrice coverage on August 30. Then the file exploded at the start of September: Brent settled higher by $4.16, or 4.6 percent, at $94.65 on the first day of the month according to Reuters, amid renewed tensions near the strategic strait.

Then came the two big turning points: the September 10 attack that disabled Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline carrying crude to Yanbu, according to Argus and OilPrice, and the September 13 attack on an Iranian ship in the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed prices up more than 3 percent alongside Washington's announcement that it was working to step up navigation security, according to Al Jazeera English on September 14. Within one day the market absorbed two waves — a peak near $105.48 on Thursday morning, then a correction of $4.36, according to Yahoo Finance — a market in extreme tension between hedging buying and profit taking.

The East-West Pipeline: Why One Pipe Matters This Much

The East-West pipeline is the artery that carries Saudi crude from the eastern fields on the Gulf to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, with a capacity of up to 7 million barrels per day according to Argus — a large share of global production. Its strategic function is letting Saudi Arabia bypass the Strait of Hormuz in exports; when it goes down, the export routes converge on one choke point, and any navigation incident there becomes a direct strike on global supplies rather than a psychological indicator.

The consequences appeared within days: Reuters reported on September 15 that Saudi Arabia had told its European customers of the cancellation of some September cargoes, with loading at Red Sea ports affected, while Argus confirmed the delays point to a prolonged outage, and Yahoo Finance reported Aramco halting supply to some European customers. Because markets price expectations, not events alone, the odds of an outage lasting weeks are what turned the hundred-dollar level from a psychological line into a trading reference.

What Does the International Energy Agency Say?

The International Energy Agency's monthly Oil Market Report in September gave the crisis an official number: global oil supply is on course to fall by 5.7 million barrels per day, to settle at 100.7 million barrels per day this year, according to the Agency, with the expected recovery in Gulf production postponed to 2027. A contraction of this size is read not as a seasonal headline but as a structural change in supplies — which explains the rush of prices toward the levels tracked now.

The deeper significance is that these forecasts arrived before any real logistical recovery; for as long as the East-West line is down and navigation in the strait is exposed to incidents, as we followed in our report on the Iranian-American escalation, each new day brings fresh rounds of threat to supply. That is the secret of the prices' resilience above one hundred dollars despite soft demand — slow growth in the big markets balances the shrinking supply.

Aramco at the Storm's Center: Rising Profits, Stranded Cargoes

In a striking paradox, contradictory news gathers on Aramco's table: it is the company most damaged by the infrastructure outage and the cancelled cargoes, and at the same time among the biggest beneficiaries of rising prices. Reuters reported in August that the company said the American-Iranian war had cost the global market the equivalent of 2.6 million barrels per day, and that it was harvesting higher prices for crude, products and chemicals, with a net profit jump of 44 percent.

This double equation is what makes the markets so sensitive to any news from Riyadh; every announcement about repairing or delaying the pipeline, or resuming loading, carries a direct effect on global supply. Aramco's monthly figures and Red Sea shipping data are the two leading indicators ahead of any reversal in the price path.

The Impact on Consumers and Global Inflation

Globally, oil above one hundred dollars means a fresh inflationary push through transport, energy and manufacturing costs, just as the Fed raises rates to fight August's hot price pressures, as we documented in our report on the rate decision. The wave intersects with The Conference Board's expectation of additional hikes in October and December, making the imported-inflation scenario present even in countries that buy no barrel from the Middle East, because global shipping prices expand quickly with the cost of insured navigation in tension zones.

For the Arab consumer the equation is wider than pump prices. Oil exporters will see their treasuries gain revenue that funds development, but many Arab countries are net energy importers and will face a higher bill under already compressed social files. Follow the energy-linked expenses directly: electricity bills, shipping costs for traders, and intermediate petroleum products such as petrochemicals — the fastest channels through which the September wave reaches the citizen's pocket.

Scenarios for the Weeks Ahead

The baseline scenario in most coverages assumes prices staying in a range of $95 to $108 for as long as the maritime tension and the disabled pipeline persist, with sharp volatility around every headline. The upside involves a wider naval escalation or an impact on additional ports, pushing prices to new levels with no nearby ceiling. The downside rests on a surprise diplomatic settlement, in which case prices could fall as fast as they rose — as in April 2026, when Iran declared the strait open and prices plunged, according to BBC.

For monitors, three weekly indicators: the Agency's monthly reports as the official supply reference, shipping prices through the Strait of Hormuz as a risk measure, and US inventory data as a gauge of actual demand. This trio gives a deeper view than one volatile daily price, grounded in repeated data rather than headlines.

Key Points

  • Brent settled at $103.70 on September 18, 2026, up 13.18% in a month and 55.52% in a year (Trading Economics).
  • The September 17 open recorded $105.48 for Brent and $101.99 for WTI (Forbes) before a correction of $4.36 (Yahoo Finance).
  • The September 10 attack disabled the Saudi East-West pipeline, with a capacity of 7 million barrels per day (Argus).
  • Saudi Arabia cancelled September cargoes for European customers, and loading at Red Sea ports was affected (Reuters, September 15).
  • The International Energy Agency cuts global supply by 5.7 million barrels per day to 100.7 million, postponing the Gulf recovery to 2027.
  • Aramco says the war cost the market 2.6 million barrels per day while recording a 44% jump in profit (Reuters, August 2026).
  • The September 13 attack on an Iranian ship in Hormuz pushed prices more than 3%, with Washington stepping up navigation security (Al Jazeera English, September 14).

FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions

What is the price of Brent crude today?

Brent recorded $103.70 per barrel on September 18, 2026, down 1.07% from the previous session, according to Trading Economics, after opening September 17 at $105.48 according to Forbes. Prices swing widely day to day, so rely on live tracking before any decision.

Why did oil prices rise in September 2026?

Because three shocks accumulated within days: the September 10 attack that disabled the Saudi East-West pipeline (7 million barrels per day of capacity) according to Argus, the September 13 attack on an Iranian ship in Hormuz that pushed prices up more than 3% according to Al Jazeera English, and the Agency's estimate of a 5.7-million-barrel-per-day drop in global supply. Together they keep the market above the hundred-dollar barrier.

What is the East-West pipeline and why does it matter?

It is a Saudi pipeline carrying crude from the eastern fields to Yanbu on the Red Sea, with a capacity of up to 7 million barrels per day, built to bypass the Strait of Hormuz in exports. Its outage doubles the market's sensitivity to any navigation incident in the strait — explaining the European cargo cancellations Reuters reported on September 15.

What does the energy crisis mean for global inflation?

Oil above one hundred dollars raises transport and production costs in nearly every sector, adding fresh inflation pressure just as the Fed raises rates to contain earlier pressures. The effect travels through energy bills, shipping prices and intermediate petroleum products, reaching even countries that do not import oil from the region.

What are the expectations for oil prices ahead?

The prevailing scenario sees prices in an elevated range while the pipeline is down and navigation is tense, with sharp swings around every event. Any diplomatic settlement could send prices down as fast as they rose, as in April 2026 when Iran declared the strait open and prices plunged, according to BBC. The Agency's indicators and shipping movement remain the most precise gauges to follow.

Sources

  • Trading Economics — tradingeconomics.com — Brent's close at $103.70 on September 18, up 13.18% monthly and 55.52% yearly.
  • Forbes — forbes.com — Brent's open at $105.48 and WTI at $101.99 on September 17, 2026.
  • Yahoo Finance — finance.yahoo.com — the $103.98 price with a $4.36 decline, September 17, 2026; the halt of European supply, September 18.
  • Reuters — reuters.com — Brent settling at $94.65 on September 1; the cancellation of September cargoes after the pipeline strike, September 15; Aramco's market-loss and profit estimates, August 2026.
  • Al Jazeera English — aljazeera.com — the price jump of more than 3% after the Iranian ship attack and Washington stepping up navigation security, September 14, 2026.
  • Argus Media — argusmedia.com — delays and cancellations of European cargoes and a prolonged outage on the 7-million-barrel line, September 15, 2026.
  • OilPrice — oilprice.com — the cancellation of Aramco's European cargoes after the September 10 attack; August price rises with the exchange of strikes, August 30, 2026.
  • International Energy Agency — iea.org — the September 2026 Oil Market Report: supply falling 5.7 million barrels to 100.7 million and the Gulf recovery postponed to 2027.
  • BBC — bbc.com — the April 2026 context: prices plunging after Iran declared Hormuz open, April 18, 2026.

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