Ukraine and Russia: The Energy Strikes Do Not Stop as Zelenskyy Offers to Halt Attacks on One Condition

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Monday, September 14, 2026, that Ukraine is ready to halt its strikes on Russian territory — including the oil refineries — if its partners guarantee an agreement with Moscow to stop the attacks on vital infrastructure, according to Al Jazeera English, while mutual strikes on energy facilities extend across both countries, according to Reuters on September 15. Around this stuck file, other events escalate: French accusations against Moscow of hybrid attacks, air encounters near the Polish border, and elections under way in Russia, the first since the war began.

Can the initiative open a door to genuine de-escalation, and what do the ground and diplomatic realities say about its chances? This is Chronicle's comprehensive report on the biggest war in Europe since the Second World War.

Table of Contents

  1. Zelenskyy's Initiative: The Full Story
  2. The Mutual Energy Strikes Do Not Stop
  3. The Battlefield in Numbers: What Has Actually Changed?
  4. The Escalation Near NATO
  5. Macron and the Hybrid Attacks on France
  6. The Diplomatic Horizon Between New York and Kyiv
  7. What It Means for the Energy and Food Markets in Europe
  8. Key Points
  9. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
  10. Sources
  11. Read Also

Zelenskyy's Initiative: The Full Story

In statements published on Monday, September 14, the Ukrainian president offered to halt Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory, explicitly naming the Russian oil refineries as a primary target of Kyiv's counter-strikes, if partners guarantee an agreement with Russia to stop attacks on Ukraine's vital infrastructure, according to Al Jazeera English — a readiness American newspapers carried as stopping strikes if infrastructure protection is secured.

The initiative tries to revive an “infrastructure war with a safety catch”: both parties suffer the destruction of electricity, water and vital systems, but the strikes do not stop because neither side trusts the other without an international guarantor. Kyiv is turning that into a negotiating card — stopping conditional on documented Western guarantees rather than verbal promises. The hanging question: will Moscow accept a formula binding its own strikes to guarantees without a clear reciprocal clause?

The Mutual Energy Strikes Do Not Stop

The war on vital facilities has not stopped. According to Reuters on September 15, both sides continued mutual energy strikes, with Kyiv reporting overnight Russian attacks that killed two people and damaged a port and Ukrainian energy facilities — a continuation of each side's strategy of disrupting the other's energy supplies and logistics. UN sources and rights reports had previously documented growing suffering from attacks near civilian areas, while independent assessments registered fighting at sea and in deep logistics.

The interest in stopping the strikes is economic as much as humanitarian: every wave of strikes on Russian refineries lifts global energy price pressures, and every strike on Ukraine's grids raises the reconstruction cost international bodies will bear later. The Ukrainian-Russian energy arena has become a global mover of the oil and gas markets, as documented in our report on oil above one hundred dollars.

The Battlefield in Numbers: What Has Actually Changed?

According to the Institute for the Study of War assessment published on the first of September, the pace of the Russian forces' advance rose marginally during August, but the Russian spring-summer offensive failed to achieve a genuine operational maneuver — an assessment distinguishing small tactical gains from major breakthroughs. Russia Matters reported on September 9 net Russian gains of 14 square miles of Ukrainian territory between August 11 and September 8 — a slow, continuous shift in the front lines.

These figures explain why no party can decide the battlefield: Russian monthly gains remain limited compared with Ukraine's area and the depth of its defenses, but enough to keep attritional pressure on Ukrainian forces and Western resources. Attacks on civilian targets far from the front continued; American tracking documented Russian drones on a Ukrainian passenger bus that killed five people — a scene repeating the humanitarian character of the war's current round.

The Escalation Near NATO

The greater worry for Western capitals is the war's extension toward the Alliance's borders. United Nations reports and incident trackers documented clashes near the Polish border and NATO decisions to shoot down drones in border areas, according to the independent tracking, while Poland and Ukraine accused Moscow of what they described as escalation after strikes near the Polish border, according to Al Jazeera English. The pattern raises the risk of an “accidental slide” into direct confrontation between Alliance forces and Russia — the most dangerous scenario for global security.

The Alliance's reaction has taken the form of expanded pledges of support for Ukraine, according to published coverage, and stronger defensive air architecture on the eastern flanks. The practical challenge is managing the incidents themselves — drones crashing in Alliance territory or passing near Polish cities, each requiring a rapid shoot-down decision under short time pressure. Successful so far in preventing a full escalation, these procedures do not change that every incident nudges the edge further.

Macron and the Hybrid Attacks on France

On a parallel axis, French President Emmanuel Macron accused Moscow of targeting France with hybrid attacks, according to Sky News on September 18, speaking as Russians voted in the first elections held since the war began — a reference to the interventions usually attributed to Moscow, from disinformation and cyber sabotage to pressure on Western countries supporting Ukraine.

“Hybrid attacks” describes openly non-military measures — information engineering, sabotage of institutions and economic pressure — a gray area where attribution is hard to prove with judicial rigor but easy to trace in general effect. An accusation at this level from the president of a major allied state at the heart of the EU reflects a new phase of indirect escalation between Moscow and the West, and adds diplomatic context to the General Assembly week, as documented in our separate report on the Assembly.

The Diplomatic Horizon Between New York and Kyiv

The immediate horizon passes through the UN General Assembly, whose general debate begins on Tuesday, September 22, as we documented; the Great Hall will be the first wide arena where the parties and their allies can test formulas of conditional stopping or general pressure. Zelenskyy's initiative is the card Kyiv will carry to New York — documented Western guarantees in exchange for halting deep strikes, a formula that needs Moscow's consent, which has not announced similar readiness so far.

In the long term, the equation remains tied to factors bigger than the front: the continuity of Western support; Russia's strategic decisions, which show no indicators of unwinding the conflict; and the energy and global-economy pressures raising the cost of confrontation for everyone. Until then, the war on infrastructure remains the most precise indicator of a potential truce: its mutual stopping is the first known step toward any lasting settlement.

What It Means for the Energy and Food Markets in Europe

The strikes on Russian refineries, which Zelenskyy's conditional halt targets, carry a direct economic translation: they raise global fuel prices, as our report on oil above one hundred dollars documented, and any arrangement to stop them would be de-escalation news for Europe's energy markets, which are rebuilding winter stocks; military statements here are read on trading desks as market data, not merely war news.

The food file is tied to the grain corridor and Black Sea maritime logistics, affected by any escalation near the ports, given several developing countries' dependence on the region's grain. Any path toward mutual de-escalation on infrastructure would ease two pressures at once: energy prices on European households and food prices on developing importers — which explains the global interest in Zelenskyy's offer beyond the war file itself.

Key Points

  • Zelenskyy announced on September 14 Ukraine's readiness to halt strikes on Russian territory, including the oil refineries, in exchange for partner guarantees on infrastructure attacks (Al Jazeera English).
  • The mutual energy strikes continue: overnight Russian attacks killed two people and damaged a port and Ukrainian energy facilities (Reuters, September 15).
  • The Institute for the Study of War: the pace of the Russian advance rose marginally in August, but the summer offensive failed in an operational maneuver (September 1).
  • Russia achieved net gains of 14 square miles between August 11 and September 8, according to Russia Matters.
  • A Russian drone strike on a Ukrainian passenger bus killed five people, according to independent American tracking.
  • Poland and Ukraine accused Moscow of escalation after strikes near the Polish border, with drones shot down by the Alliance (Al Jazeera English).
  • Macron accused Moscow of targeting France with hybrid attacks, coinciding with the first elections in Russia since the war (Sky News, September 18).

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What is Zelenskyy's new offer?

On September 14, 2026, Zelenskyy offered to halt Ukraine's strikes on Russian territory — including the oil refineries — if international partners guarantee an agreement with Russia to stop attacks on vital infrastructure, according to Al Jazeera English. The core idea is a stop conditional on documented guarantees rather than verbal promises.

Have the infrastructure strikes actually stopped?

No. Reuters reported on September 15 that the two sides are still striking each other's energy facilities, with overnight Russian attacks that killed two people and damaged a port and energy facilities. Implementation of the initiative requires Moscow's consent, which has not announced similar readiness so far.

What is the current state of the military front?

The Russian advance is slow but continuous: net gains between August 11 and September 8 reached 14 square miles, according to Russia Matters, while the Institute for the Study of War judged the spring-summer offensive a failure at genuine operational maneuver despite August's marginal rise in pace. The equation remains mutual attrition.

What are the “hybrid attacks” with which Macron accused Moscow?

Hybrid attacks are non-military measures — disinformation campaigns, cyber sabotage, economic pressure and interference in internal affairs — where strict judicial proof is difficult but which are regularly attributed to Russian operations in Western coverage. Macron accused Moscow of this targeting on September 18, according to Sky News, coinciding with the first elections in Russia since the war began.

Is there a real horizon for ending the war soon?

The next realistic platform is the UN General Assembly week, whose general debate begins on September 22, with Zelenskyy's conditional initiative as Kyiv's basic card there. A solution remains contingent on Moscow's acceptance of mutual guarantees and on the continuity of Western support; no documented indicators so far point to both parties accepting a comprehensive deal in the near term.

Sources

Read Also